Whither the future of religion? Well, there’s three quite large forces at work here, two for more religiosity, and one for less. I’ll do the “fors” first, then the “against”.
(1) For: Demographics of Religiosity
This one’s simple: the more religious you are, the more kids you have. The highest birthrate state in the USA? Utah, and their heavy Mormon population. Highest birthrate groups in the USA? Amish and those following the Quiverfull movement. Highest Jewish birth rates in Israel? The Ultra-Orthodox. Which Muslim women have the most children? Those who support Sharia law. Among all groups, the more religious are outbreeding the less religious.
(2) For: “The Great Sort”
In 1900, we all read the same newspapers. In the 1950s, we all watched the same evening newscasts. But in the new millennium, the New Media and the Internet have made “selective news” possible. If you’re against logging, you can read anti-logging blogs, get anti-logging newsfeeds, even read anti-logging magazines. With Fox News, and NBC’s counterpunch with MSNBC, the Right and Left no longer have to listen to each other’s viewpoints. Christians listen to Christian news, Muslims get Muslim news, and so on… everyone’s preaching to the choir. And studies have shown that if you only hear confirming viewpoints, your own confidence in your correctness rises.
So now ultra-religious families don’t have to expose their children to viewpoints that conflict with their own just to obtain news or entertainment. With home-schooling and religious schools, outside influences can be minimized even as children are raised in secular societies. Assimilation is becoming a thing of the past.
(3) Against: Easy information
However easy the internet makes single-view newsfeeds, it also makes alternative viewpoints available at anyone’s fingertips, with just a few clicks of the mouse. And with enough alternative views, some will ultimately be extremely well-researched and convincing. Most young adults leaving the nest will explore the internet in one way or another, and will eventually be exposed to viewpoints that well-meaning parents had hoped they would never see.
Outcome:
Which will win out? Trends toward secularism depend on quality of arguments, ability to disseminate those arguments, and education of children against supernaturalism. Trends toward religiosity depend on counterarguments, prevention of dissemination of contradictory ideas, and outreach to the disaffected through “missionary” type work.
Current trends in the USA and Europe are toward more secularism, BUT… that trend may be limited to the deconversion of those without strongly-held beliefs. At some point, the trend may reverse itself, and the far-higher birthrates of the religious may take over.
One final tidbit of food for thought: there were about 15,000 Amish in 1900. By 2010, estimates had the Amish population at 249,000. At that birthrate, we’ll have over 4,100,000 Amish by 2120, over 1 out of every 200 Americans.
While it is true that some religious people have more children than their non-religious counterparts this is not universally the case. For example the official teaching, of the Catholic church is that contraception is wrong, however many practicing Catholics disregard this teaching as can be seen by the fact that Catholic families (in the West) often have only 1-2 children. If Catholics strictly followed the teachings of the Pope then the average Catholic family, in the West would be having more children than they are, in fact having.
ReplyDeleteYes, "practicing" Catholics in the West often have less children, but there are more conservative Catholic groups that are insistent that the rules be followed. Play this out over a few generations where "mainstream" Catholics have 2 kids and "conservative" Catholics have 10 kids, and you'll get a lot more "conservative" Catholics, who I would bet are the more religious ones.
ReplyDelete"Mainstreamers" who are willing to compromise on birth control are probably willing to compromise on other religious tenets as well...